What recovery could produce.
Find a dormant-book size on the left axis and an average ticket on the right. The cell where they meet shows the output of one formula-driven scenario at the selected conversion assumption.
Dormant count and average completed-service value can come from your source system. Reactivation rate is still an assumption until a reconciled campaign produces verified completed returns.
What one campaign produces.
At a 10% planning assumption. Each cell is the arithmetic output if that share of the dormant pool becomes a verified completed return at the displayed ticket value.
| Avg ticket ↓ Dormant → | dormant 250 | dormant 500 | dormant 1,000 | dormant 2,500 | dormant 5,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | $3K | $5K | $10K | $25K | $50K |
| $200 | $5K | $10K | $20K | $50K | $100K |
| $300 | $8K | $15K | $30K | $75K | $150K |
| $500 | $13K | $25K | $50K | $125K | $250K |
| $750 | $19K | $38K | $75K | $188K | $375K |
| $1,000 | $25K | $50K | $100K | $250K | $500K |
Read it like this: a salon with 1,000 dormant clients at $200 avg ticket recovers $20,000 from one campaign. A dental practice with 2,500 dormant patients at $300 ticket recovers $75,000. Multi-location and DSO numbers compound from there.
What 12 months of consistent cadence produces.
At a $300 average ticket and 10% per-campaign planning assumption. The model applies diminishing returns and an explicit 55% cumulative cap. The cap is a modeling choice, not an observed Retention IQ benchmark.
| Cadence ↓ Dormant → | dormant 250 | dormant 500 | dormant 1,000 | dormant 2,500 | dormant 5,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / quarter Conservative — most practices 34% reactivated | $26K | $52K | $103K | $258K | $516K |
| 1 / 2 months Standard cadence 47% reactivated | $35K | $70K | $141K | $351K | $703K |
| 1 / month Aggressive — high-engagement verticals 55% reactivated | $41K | $83K | $165K | $413K | $825K |
Model behavior: increasing cadence raises the arithmetic output while diminishing returns reduce each incremental gain. Real cadence must respect service timing, consent, frequency limits, customer experience, and measured results.
What happens if reactivation runs conservative or aggressive.
The same per-campaign formula at three user-visible assumptions: 6%, 10%, and 15%. These are sensitivity inputs, not customer benchmarks or promised campaign results.
Lower sensitivity input
| Dormant | $300 ticket |
|---|---|
| 250 | $5K |
| 500 | $9K |
| 1,000 | $18K |
| 2,500 | $45K |
| 5,000 | $90K |
Planning midpoint
| Dormant | $300 ticket |
|---|---|
| 250 | $8K |
| 500 | $15K |
| 1,000 | $30K |
| 2,500 | $75K |
| 5,000 | $150K |
Upper sensitivity input
| Dormant | $300 ticket |
|---|---|
| 250 | $11K |
| 500 | $23K |
| 1,000 | $45K |
| 2,500 | $113K |
| 5,000 | $225K |
What recovery looks like in your category.
Illustrative defaults by vertical. The recovery column applies the displayed ticket and reactivation assumptions to 1,000 dormant clients. Replace every default with measured source-system data before making a decision.
| Vertical | Typical dormant | Avg ticket | Reactivation | Per campaign (1,000 dormant) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dental practice Hygiene recall + cosmetic case acceptance | 45% of active | $285 | 11% | $31K |
| Med spa / aesthetics Tox fade-clock + filler + skincare packages | 55% of active | $540 | 12% | $65K |
| Optometry / vision Annual exam + VSP/EyeMed benefit windows | 50% of active | $385 | 10% | $39K |
| Specialty medical Deductible-met windows + deferred procedures | 60% of active | $720 | 13% | $94K |
| Hair salon / colorist Color refresh + cut cadence (5-7 week) | 50% of active | $138 | 11% | $15K |
| Massage therapy Monthly habit + package buyers | 50% of active | $128 | 9% | $12K |
| Fitness studio 28-day cliff + class-pack drift | 50% of active | $189 | 10% | $19K |
| HVAC contractor Seasonal tune-up + maintenance plan | 40% of active | $179 | 9% | $16K |
| Plumber Emergency-to-recurring + water heater age | 60% of active | $445 | 14% | $62K |
| Pet grooming Breed-specific coat cadence | 45% of active | $85 | 10% | $9K |
Multiply for your book size: if your practice has 3,000 dormant clients in a vertical showing $30K per 1,000 dormant, that's $90K per campaign. Annualize at your chosen cadence using Table 2.
The assumptions — in plain English.
10% planning midpoint
The model uses 10% as a visible midpoint between 6% and 15%. It is not described as an industry average or Retention IQ customer benchmark. Replace it with a measured completed-return rate when reliable campaign data exists.
55% cumulative model cap
The annual model caps the original dormant pool at 55% to prevent indefinite compounding. This is an explicit constraint for scenario planning, not a claim that every business has the same addressable ceiling.
Diminishing returns per campaign
Each campaign reactivates 10% of CURRENTLY-DORMANT clients, not 10% of original dormant. After 4 campaigns at 10% each, cumulative reactivation is 1-(0.9)^4 = 34%, not 40%. The math flattens as the pool shrinks.
Average ticket is gross, not net
We use your gross ticket because that's the number a dormant-client recovery is worth to the practice — same payer mix, same in-network discount profile, same redemption rate on packages. Net margin varies wildly by vertical and is your decision to make against this gross-revenue baseline.
Execution is not modeled
The arithmetic does not predict list quality, reachability, consent, delivery, message quality, service demand, cancellations, no-shows, or operational capacity. Those factors can move completed-return results materially.
What's not in these numbers
The model excludes cross-sell, referrals, discounts, delivery costs, refunds, disputes, and downstream relationship effects. Do not assume those omitted effects are positive; measure them separately.
Replace the sample assumptions with measured inputs.
Start with a sample-data walkthrough. If the workflow fits, we will confirm the permitted source data, dormancy definition, consent posture, attribution rules, and completed-service evidence before customer data moves.